Predictors of a recession

Although there are no completely reliable predictors, the following are regarded to be possible predictors.[8]
In the U.S. a significant stock market drop has often preceded the beginning of a recession. However about half of the declines of 10% or more since 1946 have not been followed by recessions.[9] In about 50% of the cases a significant stock market decline came only after the recessions had already begun.

Inverted yield curve,[10] the model developed by economist Jonathan H. Wright, uses yields on 10-year and three-month Treasury securities as well as the Fed's overnight funds rate.[11] Another model developed by Federal Reserve Bank of New York economists uses only the 10-year/three-month spread. It is, however, not a definite indicator;[12] it is sometimes followed by a recession 6 to 18 months later[citation needed].

The three-month change in the unemployment rate and initial jobless claims.[13]

Index of Leading (Economic) Indicators (includes some of the above indicators).[14]