Cause of the Financial Crisis of 2007–2009

This article is about the series of financial market events, starting in July 2007, which were the proximate cause of a weakening of the global economy. For details on the stock market crashes and bank bailouts of late 2008, see Global financial crisis of 2008–2009. For economic issues beyond the financial markets, see Late 2000s recession. For discussions of major aspects of the policy response to the crisis, see The Keynesian Resurgence of 2008 / 2009 and 2009 G-20 London summit.

In August 2002 an analyst identified a housing bubble.[8] Dean Baker wrote that from 1953 to 1995 house prices had simply tracked inflation, but that when house prices from 1995 onwards were adjusted for inflation they showed a marked increase over and above inflation-based increases. Baker drew the conclusion that a bubble in the US housing market existed and predicted an ensuing crisis. It later proved impossible to convince responsible parties such as the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve of the need for action.[dubious – discuss][9][10] Baker's argument was confirmed with the construction of a data series from 1895 to 1995 by the influential Yale economist Robert Shiller, which showed that real house prices had been essentially unchanged over that 100 years.[11]

A common claim during the first weeks of the financial crisis was that the problem was simply caused by reckless, sub-prime lending. However, the sub-prime mortgages were only part of a far more extensive problem affecting the entire $20 trillion US housing market: the sub-prime sector was simply the first place that the collapse of the bubble affecting the housing market showed up.