Identifying Recession

In a 1975 New York Times article, economic statistician Julius Shiskin suggested several economic indicators that identify a recession; these indicators included the rule 'two successive quarterly declines in GDP'.[3] Over time, the other rules have been largely forgotten, and a recession is now often identified as a period when a country's GDP falls (negative real economic growth) for at least two quarters.[4][5] Some economists prefer a more robust definition of a 1.5% rise in unemployment within 12 months.[6]

In the United States the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is generally seen as the authority for dating US recessions. The NBER defines an economic recession as: "a significant decline in [the] economic activity spread across the country, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP growth, real personal income, employment (non-farm payrolls), industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales."[7] Almost universally, academics, economists, policy makers, and businesses defer to the determination by the NBER for the precise dating of a recession's onset and end.