The Role of Central Banks in the Financial Crisis of 2007–2009

This article is about the series of financial market events, starting in July 2007, which were the proximate cause of a weakening of the global economy. For details on the stock market crashes and bank bailouts of late 2008, see Global financial crisis of 2008–2009. For economic issues beyond the financial markets, see Late 2000s recession. For discussions of major aspects of the policy response to the crisis, see The Keynesian Resurgence of 2008 / 2009 and 2009 G-20 London summit.

Some have proposed that the crisis is an excellent example of the Austrian Business Cycle Theory, in which credit created through the policies of central banking gives rise to an artificial boom, which is inevitably followed by a bust. Proponents of this theory have predicted the current financial crises, and argue that central banks should not be involved in debt markets.
The history of the yield curve from 2000 through 2007 illustrates the role that credit creation by the Federal Reserve may have played in the on-set of the financial crisis in 2007 and 2008. Treasury yield is one tool of monetary policy.

The yield curve (also known as the term structure of interest rates) is the shape formed by a graph showing US Treasury Bill or Bond interest rates on the vertical axis and time to maturity on the horizontal axis. When short-term interest rates are lower than long-term interest rates the yield curve is said to be “positively sloped”. This in turn encourages an expansion in money supply and in turn favours debt induced bubbles. When long-term interest rates are lower than short-term interest rates the yield curve is said to be “inverted”. This favours a contraction in money supply. When long term and short term interest rates are equal the yield curve is said to be “flat”. The yield curve is believed by some to be a strong predictor of recession (when inverted) and inflation (when positively sloped).

Other observers have doubted the role that monetary policy plays in controlling the business cycle. In a May 24, 2006 story CNN Money reported: “…in recent comments, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke repeated the view expressed by his predecessor Alan Greenspan that an inverted yield curve is no longer a good indicator of a recession ahead.”

A positively sloped yield curve allows Primary Dealers (such as large investment banks) in the Federal Reserve system to fund themselves with cheap short term money while lending out at higher long-term rates. This strategy is profitable so long as the yield curve remains positively sloped. However, it creates a liquidity risk if the yield curve were to become inverted and banks would have to refund themselves at expensive short term rates while losing money on longer term loans.

Following the bursting of the Dot-com bubble in 2000 and the Stock market downturn of 2002 the US Federal Reserve reacted by sharply lowering short-term interest rates. The Fed lowered the Fed Funds target rate beginning in January 2001 at 6.5% to a nadir of 1% in June 2003. The Fed also held rates at this low level for an unusually long period of time (1yr) until June 2004. This prolonged period of stimulative Federal Reserve monetary policy created a very positively sloped yield curve. The yield on the 3-month T-bill reached its lowest point (0.88%) for the cycle in the late fall of 2003 while at the same time 30-year T-bond rates were in excess of 5%.

The inflationary effect of the prolonged period of a very positively sloped yield curve resulted in inflation of asset prices rather than a general increase in the price level of all goods and services. The reason this happened was likely due to the cheap goods that were imported from BRIC economies prevented any inflation. The excess money was channeled into various assets. Without a globalised economy this may not have happened. In particular, it led to a United States housing bubble that began to attract attention as early as 2002 but reached its peak in 2005.

In June 2004 the Fed began to slowly increase Fed Funds rates and the yield curve slowly narrowed. Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan notably described this narrowing of spreads between short term and long term rates as a “conundrum” during testimony in February 2005. The chairman expected long term rates to rise in line with short term rates. However, the tightening of monetary policy caused by rising short term rates was slowing the economy and reducing demand for long-term borrowing.

The Fed raised Fed Funds target rates to a peak of 5.25% in June 2006. By October 2006 the yield curve on 90-day T-bills vs 30-year T-bonds was essentially flat indicating neutral monetary policy (neither stimulative nor contractionary). While the Fed maintained Fed Funds rates at this high level, long term rates began to fall causing the yield curve to become more and more inverted. The yield curve was most strongly inverted in March 2007 when concern about current inflation was reaching its peak.